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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still